There was much anticipation in New England that October would be a strong month, and it did not disappoint: business was brisk, and many dealers had to react fast to replenish what was flying out the door. Other areas of the country weren’t quite so fortunate as their sales continued to lag, but the Longshoremen Strike in early October helped to prop up lumber prices on items that were quickly becoming scarce (particularly long length, wide width Western Spruce and Fir dimension). With the pending closures of Canfor’s two mills in northern British Columbia, wood coming out of the west was already tightening up and the usual flow of the standby of late, European SPF, was cut off due to the strike. Reliable authorities have claimed that for every day of the strike the ports would run a week behind in processing containers and, although pricing wasn’t greatly affected, the lead times certainly were as anyone looking for 2x12 and long lengths soon found themselves shut out. As the weeks progressed, many were forced into using generally unwelcome alternative species for their areas, such as Southern Yellow Pine, which closed the gap for many previously unwilling dealers. After three short days, the strike went on hiatus until January 15th, 2025. The market normalized up until Hurricane Milton came along, which further tightened supplies and subsequently raised prices. As October drew to a close, demand waned but supplies remained tight, keeping buyers in the market and propping up prices. For our own stock, we are very well positioned across the board, having been able to secure ample supply at competitive prices before any disruption. For November, we anticipate that prices will continue to track in a firm to upward trend, based upon dealer’s needs for replenishment and the continued efforts of mills to meet that demand.
Like the weather, making a prediction of what the lumber market may do in coming months is easy: study some indicators, look at your history and make your prediction. However, also like the weather, getting it right is another matter. To this point, we often correlate the inaccuracy of meteorologists to lumber traders. Nonetheless, if there is one prediction that we have down pat, it’s that no one’s crystal ball is crystal-clear enough to know what will happen next (or when) so the unexpected can be expected. Although that’s not a comforting statement to hear whenever prices soar and shortages abound, we do work in a world of markets that are influenced by a myriad of situations that can turn any one of them, at any time, around 180 degrees. We need to expect change and plan for it, and the latest Longshoremen Strike is a notable example. If one day of strike equals one week of delays, imagine the havoc created on not only lumber, but any import item if this went on any further. Many thought we’d have to hunker down for weeks until it was resolved but, most thankfully, three days was enough, and it stopped any widespread panic buying from happening. Internally, we feel that the best way to prepare for what’s next is constant interdepartmental communication, which allows all parties the chance to share their market perspective and provides a forum in which, collectively, we move forward with what will be the best plan of action for all. Externally, we have an obligation to give you guidance on situations that may affect your project, as soon as possible. In kind, you can help by giving us advance notice of your upcoming projects so that we can react. There is a lot of planning involved with ordering lumber, as it usually takes weeks (and oftentimes months) for stock to arrive after a purchase order has been placed. Organized buyers must first determine needed levels, then search for material suitable in dimension, quantity, quality, lead time and price. Under ideal situations, it’s a non-eventful process but it can become complicated amazingly fast, especially when dealing with a potentially and particularly unpredictable market, so it’s best to stay in constant practice with this type of communication. As we often say and strive to do, it is always best to be proactive than reactive.
The Greek philosopher Heraclitus is credited for saying that “the only constant in life is change.” Another constant is the unpredictability of human nature, especially when confronted with uncertainty. We can’t control our future, but we can try to plan for it by keeping our mutual lines of communication open rather than leaving things to chance. Thank you for your business.