Lumber Market Update- July 2025 | Shepley Wood Products - Cape Cod, MA
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Lumber Market Update- July 2025

There’s never a lack of drama when it comes to the lumber market, and June was no exception. Lumber traders clamored about dwindling supplies and prices that would soon be escalating due to a myriad of factors (with some more of an immediate threat than others), but in the end there was little reaction from lumber dealers who, overall, were dealing with weak sales. A disturbingly early and aggressive forest fire season in Canada (with over 7.8 million acres burned and already succeeding their annual average, according to the Washington Post) has cast an unnerving pall over the Canadian lumber industry as efforts move toward suppression, containment and prevention of current and future fires. Wildfires aside, many mills have decided to incur curtailments and extend summer closures due to the lack of sales and of harvestable logs. Finally, a potential 20.05% increase to the Anti-Dumping (AD) and Countervailing Duties (CVD) levied upon Canadian lumber mills by the United States Department of Commerce (USDOC) loomed over the U.S. housing affordability factor. You may recall that, after the throes of dealing with on-again, off-again “reciprocal” tariffs against Canada earlier this year by the Trump Administration, the last reciprocal tariff was fully rescinded on April 3rd. However, only a day later it was announced by the USDOC that the AD/CVD tariffs (which have been in place for years and are currently set at 14.40%) could potentially be adjusted to a hefty 34.45%, pending a “Final Administrative Review”. That review was estimated to be completed within six months, and it appears that it will be released in August. In any event, the sum of all the realized and not-yet realized issues didn’t instigate any great swell in sales, as pricing continued to be muted as buyers stuck to the strategy of filling voids rather than adding layers. The lumber market started off 2025 flat-footed and now, halfway through the year, it continues to search for a rhythm as general uncertainty about the global, national and local economies continue to heavily influence American consumers’ spending, investing and planning strategies. The good news is that Cape Cod has remained resilient as compared to other territories, and locals within the trade still seem to be optimistic about near-term business. In consideration of the current market climate and all its factors, we anticipate that prices for July will rise and moderately creep upward as supplies become more limited.

Living and working on Cape Cod is all about the water, and that comes with it’s benefits and detractions: there’s beauty, enjoyment, comfort and life that thrives in it and around it, but there’s also a constant battle to manage it, whether it’s dealing with proximity to corrosive salt water, horizontal rain that accompanies our famous Nor’easter’s, mold, mildew, algae and lichen that seemingly grows on every shade-prone area or the expense of owning property that must be maintained and insured around such an omnipresent element. Being everywhere, all the time, moisture can do quite a bit of damage to wood products over time. The less obvious situations (such as daily, early morning condensation on a wood door) take a particularly keen eye to notice and require an understanding of the damage that a little amount of water can do. In fact, a little moisture can oftentimes be worse than a lot of moisture as it can go undetected, unlike some of the more obvious issues, such as a clogged gutter. In either case, the best defense is to shed water down and away, leaving no opportunity for water to rest, set and impenetrate an untreated or insufficiently untreated surface or area. “Untreated” in this case covers a wide swath of meanings and below are a few common situations (amongst many) that we need to be aware of. For instance, not properly sealing and finish-painting an exterior door, especially ones with the trendy square sticking and flat panels: by design, flat panels have no drip point, and the sticking is a shelf that holds water. Cutting a pressure-treated board and not applying end-sealer to the fresh cut: this is imperative, as fresh cuts on treated boards are susceptible to water ingress and decay if left unsealed. Overlooking the painting or finish-sealing of the tops and bottoms of interior doors, which are true moisture-wicking points and frequently undone. Neglecting to run a dehumidifier in a basement or turn on the climate control in the living area of a job where finish materials (like flooring) are being installed. Finally, assembling and finishing houses with saturated lumber or plywood, which oftentimes does not fully dry out in place. In all these cases, there will be an inevitable reaction if the moisture isn’t controlled immediately and effectively: it is the season for delaminating door panels, developing end rot, peeling paint, warped doors, cupped floors and proliferating mold and mildew. While none of this is news to any experienced contractor or carpenter, it may not be realized or understood by untrained or unfamiliar crew members, so it’s critical that they get the training, assistance and supervision they need to ensure that there won’t be any surprises later. It’s an issue year round, but especially with this time of the year when the “Dog Days of Summer” will soon be upon us with all of its oppressive humidity, remember to seal or finish vulnerable products thoroughly (and according to manufacturer’s specifications), be sure to cover but ventilate (air flow prevents mold and mildew from germinating), refrain from thinking that any saturated product will dry in place and use your senses of sight, smell and touch to determine if there may be a moisture issue occurring or soon developing.

Depending upon how you look at it, the moisture that we must contend with on Cape Cod is both very good and very bad for business - the constant battle homeowners fight against H2O infiltration keeps us all in business, but we need the sunny days to remind us why we put up with the inconvenience of living in such a wet climate. As more products hit the market that are declaring to be impervious to moisture, most of us can agree that nothing replaces the workability and beauty of natural wood itself and, when you drive by the historical homes found in every town on the Cape, you can see that many are a testament to the enduring performance and appeal of a properly constructed and maintained wood structure. We here at Shepley Wood Products are sincere fans of wood and are experts on the proper use and management of it in our climate. If you have any questions or concerns about how best to protect your project, please do not hesitate to contact us. Thank you for your business!